Earth System Models (ESMs) are the cutting-edge scientific tools used to predict how the global climate and global environmental systems will change in the future.
To make predictions of the future evolution of the Earth’s climate requires complex mathematical models that represent all the important processes in the global climate system using fundamental mathematical, physical, chemical and biological understandings.
Our models are in essence mathematical representations of the global climate system that we then solve on supercomputers to predict how the Earth’s climate and associated environmental systems may evolve over the coming century. The models used are analogous to a weather forecast model, which represents the atmosphere and land surface and is also solved on a supercomputer to estimate how the atmosphere will evolve over the coming few days.
The following videos explain and present a brief overview on how such Earth System Models work: