The science on the human contribution to modern warming is quite clear. Humans emissions and activities have caused around 100% of the warming observed since 1950.
In the following short animation, CarbonBrief explains and shows how each of the major factors affecting the Earth’s climate would influence temperatures in isolation – and how their combined effects almost perfectly predict long-term changes in the global temperature.
Animation by Rosamund Pearce and graph by Zeke Hausfather for Carbon Brief. Voiceover by Jocelyn Timperley. Credit: http://carbonbrief.org
Carbon Brief’s analysis finds that:
- Since 1850, almost all the long-term warming can be explained by greenhouse gas emissions and other human activities.
- If greenhouse gas emissions alone were warming the planet, we would expect to see about a third more warming than has actually occurred. They are offset by cooling from human-produced atmospheric aerosols.
- Aerosols are projected to decline significantly by 2100, bringing total warming from all factors closer to warming from greenhouse gases alone.
- Natural variability in the Earth’s climate is unlikely to play a major role in long-term warming.